Below market views are provided by the respective fund house.
Healthcare’s resilience throughout the economic cycle
2022 proved far more turbulent than expected. Multiple adverse events impacted global markets and the economy as they continued to grapple with a persistent COVID environment. Central banks were forced to pivot to aggressive monetary tightening, which weighed on investor sentiment and triggered mounting fears of a global economic recession.
There were few places to hide in this challenging environment, as broader equity and fixed-income markets experienced steep losses. Yet, the healthcare sector offered relative protection during the drawdown, once again proving itself a defensive stalwart for investors.
The sector’s defensiveness stems from the supply-and-demand dynamic of healthcare products and services. While cyclical industries usually experience a sizable reduction in demand during economic downturns, healthcare demand generally remains resilient, with consumers having an inelastic appetite for biopharmaceutical products, medical goods, and services. This was even more pronounced during the COVID-19 pandemic, with many healthcare products and services experiencing a surge in demand. While it’s uncertain whether we will see a major global economic recession in 2023, we believe the healthcare sector to offer investors a relatively safe place for their capital if a recession ultimately occurs.
Opportunities for innovation strengthened by the COVID pandemic
In recent years, COVID-19-related advancements have been the focus of the healthcare landscape.
The remarkable response of the healthcare industry to the pandemic has generated incremental returns due to sales of the vaccines, diagnostics and therapeutics mentioned above. As anticipated, many of these companies have, in turn, reinvested excess cash flows to augment their discovery capabilities, capital spending, and pipeline investments, thus compounding further advances in non-COVID unmet medical needs. As we transition to a post-COVID environment, we expect innovation to accelerate across the sector and believe it is poised to reap the rewards of these incremental investments.
Secular trends warrant a long-term allocation to healthcare companies
We believe that new modalities in treatment and prevention will continue to drive long-term governmental outlays toward healthcare products and services. Irrespective of the incremental tailwinds and headwinds associated with COVID-19, the underlying secular trends of ageing demographics, medical advancements, and profound unmet medical needs continue to support long-term exposure to global healthcare companies in a well-balanced investment strategy.
We saw energy commodity prices fall towards the end of last year as concerns over supply shortages for oil and natural gas were overtaken by deteriorating sentiment around short- to medium-term demand trends. Natural gas prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell considerably. While recessionary fears are well-founded, from current price levels we are constructive on oil and natural gas prices.
Continued supply disruption at many mines and the abrupt re-opening of China have changed the metals outlook dramatically in the past few months. We are more cautious about the second half of the year as there is a risk of demand falling in the US and Europe, just as supply could start to increase. However, if China’s pick-up is stronger than anticipated, this could easily overwhelm any Western weakness.
The world avoided a grains shortage in 2022. In aggregate, we still expect robust demand for agricultural inputs in 2023 as farmers aim to increase output by raising planted area and applying full dosages of crop protection and fertiliser products to maximise yields. Affordability has improved, with prices of fertiliser but also crop protection and other inputs having come down late last year.
Looking forward into 2023, we are constructive on gold prices. Inflation is likely to moderate, leading to the Fed slowing and even reversing rate increases. This could lead to a weaker US dollar, therefore helping gold prices to hold current levels or even rise. At current levels, gold-mining stocks look attractive on both valuation and fundamental grounds. We retain conviction in our view that, the future being inherently uncertain, gold and gold equities remain a valuable hedge over the long-term, with the latter paying an increasingly attractive income.
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In mid-March 2023, the closure of three US tech-based regional lenders triggered a fresh wave of global banking concerns. In response to the US and European banking concern, the financial authorities in Europe and the US are taking proactive measures to stabilize markets. The Fed made additional funding available to local depository institutions 1 and coordinated with five other central banks to enhance the provision of US dollar liquidity.2 Elsewhere, the Swiss government facilitated the merger of a financially troubled big bank and the country’s largest bank with additional funding support. Despite these moves, financial markets remain volatile, with preferred securities under pressure due to risk-averse investors.3
Outlook for the current banking crisis
Looking ahead in the US, we anticipate more potential issues in other smaller or lower-quality banks coupled with further banking regulation. Moreover, we believe these banks could feel the pain of potential downgrades in their credit ratings and sector outlooks by the ratings agencies.
Given this backdrop, we believe the large, diversified banks are also potential beneficiaries. These institutions are experiencing significant deposit inflows that will potentially aid their financial positions and credit ratings. In Europe, the Swiss bank merger triggered a broad-based sell-off of the AT1 bonds,4 given the proposed deal included a complete write down of a financially troubled bank’s AT1 bonds.
Amid evolving banking issues in US and Europe, as well as fragile market sentiment, we believe CoCos will continue to underperform other preferred securities.
Effective risk management avoids significant losses
During uncertain times, risk management is even more critical. By leveraging our on-the-ground expertise, we work closely with our Risk Management, Credit Research, and Bank Equity teams to review every position in the Strategy, seeking opportunities up and down the capital structure. Immediately before the collapse of the first US regional bank, our risk team warned about the potential risks associated with that bank’s securities. Therefore, we avoided investing in its newly issued mandatory convertible preferreds.
Remain favors to utilities
We believe the Strategy’s defensive positioning (adopted in 2019) is helping investors to protect against downside amid the market volatility. We remain favours to utilities as the return on equity from these names typically increases when growth slow and inflation rises. These companies are highly regulated, with little economic sensitivity attached to their earnings.
Well-positioned for a volatile market with potential attractive yields
The recent volatility has provided investors with opportunities to gain exposure to fixed-income investments. Compared with other alternatives in this space, preferreds are a higher-yielding, lower-risk option. Following the recent correction, preferreds are now trading at substantial discounts to par – these are levels not seen since the Global Financial Crisis in 2009. Furthermore, preferreds have risen far above their 10-year highs in terms of yield.5
Investors now expect the US Fed funds rate to peak in May, followed by approximately three rate cuts in the second half of 2023. When, as expected, the Fed makes a rate hike pause or hints at a pivot, we believe there will be a rebound in preferred securities, given these assets often thrive in a flat or falling rate environment. In turn, this could potentially deliver attractive total returns (income + price) to investors.
With attractive yields, a focus on high-quality names, active duration management, holistic risk management, our overweight exposure to the defensive utilities sector and greater investment flexibility, we believe the Strategy’s approach should be able to navigate currently volatile and fast-changing markets while generating potential excess returns as US interest rates stabilized.
1 Source: US Federal Reserve, 12 March 2023.
2 Source: US Federal Reserve, 19 March 2023. The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank coordinately announced to enhance the provision of liquidity via the standing U.S. dollar liquidity swap line arrangements, by increasing the frequency of 7-day maturity operations from weekly to daily. The new operations started on 20 March, 2023, and will continue at least through the end of April.
3 The Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA), 19 March 2023.
4 AT1 bonds are also known as Contingent convertibles securities (CoCos), which are debt instruments mainly issued by European banks. Part of, or the entire security converts to common equity if capital level of the bank issuer declines to levels below regulatory standards, or regulators deem a bank issuer at risk.
5 Bloomberg and Manulife Investment Management, as of 23 March 2023. The yield to maturity for preferred securities (reference to ICE BofA US All Capital Securities Index) reached a 10-year high of 8.22% in March. This was above the 10-year average of 5.48% as of 24 February 2023.
Market Review
After a strong start to the year for credit, total returns turned negative in February driven by rate volatility on the back of strong labour market and retail sales data.
The Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25bps at the beginning of the month while the ECB raised rates by 50bps.
European investment grade spreads tightened marginally, while US investment grade spreads ended the month slightly higher. High yield outperformed investment grade both in the US and Europe. However, total returns were broadly negative as government bond yields climbed.
The US 10-year yields rose from 3.51% to 3.92%, with the two-year rising from 4.21% to 4.82%. Germany’s 10-year yield increased from 2.29% to 2.65%. The UK 10-year yield rose from 3.34% to 3.71% and two-year increased from 3.46% to 4.07%.
The US dollar gained ground in February, with the currency outperforming most G-10 peers.
Outlook and Strategy
Looking forward, we remain of the view that credit offers investors good value, both in terms of improving income streams and the potential for attractive returns.
Having said that, markets have the potential to stay choppy with inflation remaining higher than expected.
Overall, credit still appears to provide attractive compensation for risk, as corporate fundamentals look broadly robust and the default rate cycle is expected to be shallow.
Market dispersion is looking healthy. Careful bond issuer selection will be important, particularly looking for issuers with cash flows rising with inflation, or whose business models are resilient to a slowdown.
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The closure of three U.S. tech-focused lenders has sent shock waves across financial markets. We believe the recent developments in the U.S. could be seen as being idiosyncratic rather than systemic in nature and may even create investment opportunities for a globally diversified, income-oriented approach.
What we thought about the recent events
While we continue to monitor this fluid situation, the development could be seen as idiosyncratic.
We believe there is no over-arching systemic risk to the banking industry. There may be some other company-specific missteps ahead, which we believe could be fueled by a lack of confidence rather than the toxic assets on banks’ balance sheets that caused the banking crisis of 2007/2008. Banks are better capitalized, whilst losses we see today are due to a duration mismatch rather than due to valuations or owning questionable assets. Having said that, some banking names may experience increasing difficulties, given the performance of their securities portfolios as weak sentiment by depositors challenging banks to fulfil withdrawal requests. The team remains vigilant, monitoring our exposures to banking names and focuses on high quality names.
How being globally diversified is working
In running the GMADI portfolio, our portfolio management teams consciously maintain an income-focused and low-volatility profile. This is the result of the Strategy focusing on a globally diversified portfolio across fixed income (investment-grade bonds, high-yield bonds, preferred securities) and equities (including REITs) and option-writing which, when interacting together, help minimize the concentration risks associated with geography-specific or single asset class exposures. This global diversification strategy also allows our investment managers the flexibility to move across the capital structure, sectors, geographies, and asset classes as market developments unfold.
Outlook
As investors progress through 2023, the debates continue around whether they (especially income investors) should add some risk with exposure to growth assets, or to remain anchored to a more balanced, diversified approach with less dominating style biases.
We expect a higher-for- longer-rate backdrop with persistent inflation. It’s likely that growth-oriented portfolios, that are more sensitive to rates, will likely underperform the lesser growth-oriented portfolios should the current environment persist.
We believe that a more balanced style with both growth and natural-yielding income objectives is relevant in this current macro environment because:
Our global multiple asset diversified income strategy continues to take a diversified and income-oriented approach whilst managing risk. We believe maintaining a low volatility and income profile is suitable for investors as they navigate the current uncertain macro and market environment.
2022 saw significant monetary policy tightening in developed markets as central banks raised rates in the face of rising inflation driven by higher energy prices, supply chain issues, and strong demand. We believe this monetary tightening will eventually lead to a slowdown in economic growth, and possibly a recession in some regions, as high inflation and higher interest rates increases the cost of capital for companies, and they cut back on investment and employment, which erodes consumer confidence as real wages and consumption fall.
We don't think risk assets such as equities and credit, especially in developed markets, have priced this in, and we expect spreads to widen and earnings to fall which will lead to a correction in risk assets. Therefore, we remain cautious to risk assets. Within equities, we continue to favour quality dividend, a style which offers good downside protection in weak markets, although it tends to fall behind in sharp rallies. We do think that government bonds and investment grade credit offer some protection against this economic outcome, especially in the US and UK, where we are seeing the potential to generate income, as well as capital appreciation, to offset weakness in risk assets.
We continue to find opportunities, especially in emerging markets and China, which are at a different part of the monetary and inflation cycle. We think the prospects for emerging markets over developed markets continue to look favourable. This outlook is supported by the continuing recovery in China as the reopening following the removal of zero- covid policy continues to gather pace, and the government implements pro-growth policies. As the consumer in China starts spending again, this will benefit domestic companies' earnings and subsequently other markets, such as ASEAN and Japan, from increased trade and tourism. A potential for the dollar to stabilise or even weaken from here is another tailwind for emerging market assets.
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1 Source: Multi-Asset Solutions Team (MAST) in Asia, as of April 2023. Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline or other expectations are only current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events will occur, and if they were to occur, the result may be significantly different than that shown here.
Disclaimer – Quarterly Asset Allocation Views
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