Market Intelligence

2018 June Robust US economy points to higher rate trajectory

Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist, Manulife Investments, believes that robust US growth, coupled with accelerating inflation and low unemployment, will push interest rates higher over the next two years.

 
2018 June Higher interest rates positive for US bank equities

In this investment note, the Portfolio Managers of Bank Opportunities and Financial Industries Strategies view higher interest rates in the US as positive for US bank equities, particularly small and mid-cap banks.

 
2018 May Bilateral negotiations soothe escalating trade tensions

The recently concluded second-round of trade negotiations between the US and China point to progress. In this note, Geoff Lewis, Senior Asia Strategist, believes the Chinese market’s robust fundamentals and positive catalysts suggest that any further friction in the bilateral relationship should be viewed as a potential buying opportunity for investors.

 
2018 March Global trade war? Not our base case – Domestic factors are more important for China and Hong Kong equities

On 23 March, US President Donald Trump announced up to $60 billion in tariffs against Chinese imports. Kai Kong Chay, Senior Portfolio Manager, Greater China Equities, believes that a global trade war is not the base case scenario, while the fundamentals underpinning China and Hong Kong equities are still in place.

 
2018 March Overall impact on China bonds from US trade tariff is manageable

US-China trade tensions have intensified triggered by US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose a 25% tariff on up to US$60 billion of Chinese imported goods. In this investment note, Paula Chan, Senior Portfolio Manager (Fixed Income), assesses the potential economic impact of tariffs on China and the Chinese bond market. On a Pan-Asian bond level, Endre Pedersen, Chief Investment Officer (Fixed Income, Asia ex-Japan), cautions investors that the market cannot fully price in events such as escalating trade friction – being nimble in volatile markets is the key.

 
2018 March New US-China tariff point to need for bilateral negotiations

On 22 March, US President Donald Trump announced tariffs on up to US$60 billion of Chinese imports. He also announced tighter restrictions on acquisitions and technology transfers between the two countries. Geoff Lewis, Senior Asia Strategist, believes this round of proposed tariffs is a diplomatic invitation to enter serious bilateral negotiations to resolve structural economic imbalances in the US-China trade relationship.

 
2018 March Implications of US rate hike on Asian fixed income and Asian equities

On 21 March 2018, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continued its monetary policy normalisation process, by announcing its sixth 25 basis points rate hike since December 2015, with a target range of 1.5% to 1.75%. In this investment note, Endre Pedersen, Chief Investment Officer, Fixed Income Asia (ex-Japan), and Ronald CC Chan, Chief Investment Officer, Equities, Asia (ex-Japan) discuss the implications of interest rate hike on Asian fixed income and Asian equities

 
2018 March The Fed strikes a hawkish tone

The US Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday, with Jerome Powell giving his first press conference as Chairman. Generally there was no sea change in the Fed’s overall message but there was a distinctive hawkish bent. In this note, Chief Economist Megan Greene examines why she has left our forecast unchanged for three rate hikes in 2018 and two rate hikes in 2019.

 
2018 March Twin catalysts for US bank equities: Rising interest rates and reforms

The Federal Reserve’s pace of interest rate hikes has raised questions of its impact on the banking sector. At the same time, numerous financial sector deregulation initiatives have been introduced and passed. The Portfolio Managers of Bank Opportunities and Financial Industries Strategies view these developments as twin catalysts for US bank equities in 2018, particularly small and mid-cap banks.

 
2018 March Investment Note: Latest US tariffs do not augur a trade war

On 1 March 2018, President Trump announced that his administration will impose 25% tariffs on steel imports and 10% tariffs on aluminum imports. The decision is expected to inflame relations with key trade partners, as the European Union and Canada have already raised objections to the proposed action.

 
2018 February China and HK equities: Solid fundamentals remain intact

Kai Kong Chay, Senior Portfolio Manager, Greater China Equities, believes that despite the market movements, the fundamentals underpinning China and Hong Kong equity markets are sound. From a market perspective, earnings continue to enjoy upward revisions, while valuations remain comparatively attractive compared to developed equity markets.

 
2018 February Perspectives on the equity correction

The fall in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from its January 2018 high has reached 10%, meeting the conventional definition for a market correction. Our experts believe that the price adjustment is being mainly driven by a technical correction, and not by deterioration in the economic fundamentals.

 
2018 February Implications of recent market volatility

After an extended period of low volatility, markets corrected from their highs in early February. In this Investment Note, Geoff Lewis, Senior Asia Strategist, Endre Pedersen, Chief Investment Officer, Fixed Income, Asia (ex-Japan), and Ronald CC Chan, Chief Investment Officer, Equities, Asia (ex-Japan) offer our views regarding the implications for investors from recent market movements.

 
2017 November China's 19th Communist Party Congress – Onward and upward!

The stage is set for a strong, united and determined government in China for the next five years. Manulife Asset Management Senior Asia Strategist Geoff Lewis explains what all this could mean for investors going forward.

 
2017 October Conviction in the US Banking Sector Remains High

Despite high hopes entering the year, banking stocks, particularly regional banks, have underwhelmed. The portfolio management team responsible for our Bank Opportunities and Financial Industries strategies believes that investors should stay focused on long-term supportive factors in the sector.

 
2017 September Fed announces exit from QE: Implications for EM and Asia

Geoff Lewis, Senior Asia Strategist, Manulife Asset Management believes that the Fed’s exit is a watershed moment, and one that will likely be successfully navigated. For Emerging Markets (EM) and Asia, the decision’s long-term impact should be muted, although there may be short-term hiccups.

 
 

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Manulife™ Investor Sentiment Index

Manulife Investor Sentiment Index (MISI) in Asia is a quarterly, proprietary survey measuring and tracking investor's€™ views across eight markets on their attitudes towards key asset classes and investment vehicles.
 

 

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